Forecasting has limitations: Essentially, we try and predict everything in life. And we know it’s never as accurate as we always wanted it to be. And so most of us have a very sceptical mind about it. This can be an advantage for you against the others if you know its limitations and work around them to your advantage. So what is its limitation? its limitation is that a single minor event can change the course of the entire trend. It’s called chaos theory or the butterfly effect. As we are facing it today. who predicted a bat in yuan or a lab assistant as there is a conspiracy theory about the corona could change all our predictions about our life? Well as it’s dramatically put, a flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas. Corona is even more dramatic today in our own experience. But we shouldn’t scrap forecasting altogether just because it has limitations. Because leaving aside these Black Swan events, their underlying advantage of ongoingly improving our performance outweighs its limitations altogether. The Problem is we as fashion people don’t know how to measure the accuracy of our forecast and so we have built the following 10 practices and digital tools to enable us to use them in this program to see the results in our new way of working towards trend forecasting.
10 Habits of a super trend Forecaster: (Based on Derrick Niedermans work what numbers say)
Attitude is Everything: when weighing and deciding on trends attitude towards making your own assertions is a choice.
- Only Trust Numbers: it’s a limitation to trust abstract numbers, we need to build trust to take advantage of it as others don’t have the tools you have at Design Wolf.
- Never Trust Numbers: Sorry to contradict too early in the game. Some numbers can also be wrong and are frequently misleading and all too often have an agenda. Navigational Tools: As the Columbus, you will be able to navigate to discover trends that are hidden to you and will now show up as your own insights.
- Play Jeopardy: it’s a question game, and to what question is the number (suppose to be an answer) you as a trend forecaster must constantly ask to get to its root.
- Live by the Pareto’s Law: It’s all about the 80-20 rule, 20 per cent of your tend will give you 80 per cent result, ask the right question to know which 20% Illuminating Numbers: As designers and product developers we like to dream our fantasies to create our collection, we are here to make that possible into the new realities by dealing with numbers with a couple of new habits and way of looking at the quantitative aspect of your dream fantasies.
- Play 20 Questions: Most of us are afraid to ask questions for the fear of looking stupid. But the good news is there are no stupid questions. And questions from generic to specific can make us read our predictions more accurately.
- Build Models: Of course not an Airplane model. It’s a simple structure to your way of arriving at the right predictions of a period of time. For example, theme board is a kind of model. Uncertainty: is defined as doubt. When you feel as if you are not sure if you want to take a new job or not, this is an example of uncertainty. When the economy is going bad and causing everyone to worry about what will happen next, this is an example of uncertainty. We need to build habits 7 and 8 to deal with uncertainty when we are beating on a trend that is going to define our success.
- Play the Odds: Essentially, it can mean “Do you really think your trend will fly?” or “Don’t you think it will happen? or saying that something is likely to happen but is not certain. This is about internalising a probabilist mind set unlike living in a black and white world.
- Know what you know and don’t know: This habit reduces the chance that you will overestimate or underestimate your knowledge. Estimation: Do you dress differently on a 63-degree day than a 65-degree day? The point is while we need to keep the score we also need to understand how close can be good enough in fashion unless you are dealing with adding a chemical in a drug.
- go figure: an estimation sometimes good enough to get answers, perspectives and gain confidence in predicting a collection or trend.
- look for the easy way out Your Swipe card is one easy way out, very intuitive to make to decide yes or no. and then leave for the wisdom of the crowds to work for you, while you go to sleep.