Secret 3. Micro Theme Boards: Superforecasters break down problems into smaller units to start their analysis.

The smart forecasters know how to manage complexity by breaking it down into manageable parts, it is called decomposing: The aim of decomposition is to reduce the complexity of a theme by breaking it down into a series of smaller, sub-themes that can be assessed for their relevance one at a time. When the solutions of all the smaller sub themes are put together, a solution of predicting for the larger concept is achieved.